AI Threatens One in Four Jobs – But Transformation, Not Replacement, Is the Real Risk
A new report from the International Labour Organization (ILO) and Poland’s National Research Institute has landed with a headline many leaders have been expecting: one in four jobs worldwide is now exposed to generative AI.
But before the panic sets in, the data reveals something far more nuanced – and far more actionable for employers.
And it highlights a trend that’s becoming impossible for employers to ignore: AI job transformation is accelerating across almost every sector, reshaping roles faster than many organisations can adapt.
But before the panic sets in, the data reveals something far more nuanced – and far more actionable for employers.
The biggest risk isn’t mass job loss.
It’s mass AI job transformation.
For scaleups and high-growth companies navigating talent shortages, shifting employee expectations and relentless pressure to do more with less, the implications are profound.
Generative AI is not simply automating tasks; it is reshaping what people do, how they work, and the skills they need to thrive. And for many organisations, the question has shifted from “Will AI replace jobs?” to “How do we redesign roles, support people, and build resilience through this transformation?”
A New Methodology, A Clearer Picture
To understand the real exposure of workers to AI-driven change, ILO researchers analysed nearly 30,000 job descriptions using surveys, expert input and AI models.
Their conclusion:
“Few jobs consist of tasks that are fully automatable with current AI technology. Transformation of jobs is the most likely impact of GenAI.”
This aligns with what we’re seeing across the companies we support: AI tools slot into workflows, augment capabilities, speed up execution, and enable teams to focus on higher-value, human-led work. But they don’t “replace” end-to-end roles.
Instead, tasks shift. Job quality shifts. Skill requirements shift. And the companies that aren’t actively preparing their people are the ones most exposed.
The Gender Gap in AI Job Transformation
One of the most striking, and urgent, findings from the report is the disproportionate exposure of women to AI-driven job transformation.
In high-income countries:
- 9.6% of women’s roles fall into the highest-risk category
- compared with 3.4% of men’s roles
Globally, the pattern holds: women are twice as likely to be in jobs where automation could significantly reshape day-to-day work.
Why?
Women remain overrepresented in clerical and administrative roles – scheduling, formatting, data entry, document preparation, precisely the tasks generative AI already performs rapidly and accurately.
These roles aren’t going away, but they are changing. Without intervention, the risk isn’t redundancy – it’s something subtler but just as serious:
- reduced responsibilities
- stagnant wages
- diminished career progression
- job insecurity
- widening gender gaps
It’s a reminder that AI strategy cannot be separated from inclusion strategy. For employers, this is an opportunity to redesign these roles in ways that elevate—not erode—the work.
AI Exposure Is Global – But Not Equal
The report also highlights sharp differences between regions:
- High-income countries: 34% of jobs are exposed
- Low-income countries: 11%
- Middle-income regions: somewhere in between
But lower exposure does not equal lower risk.
In regions with weaker labour protections or limited digital infrastructure, even small-scale automation can be highly disruptive.
And as AI tools become cheaper and more accessible, these regions may face sudden, uneven change.
For global companies, this underscores the importance of responsible rollouts, workforce planning, and equitable access to training – especially across distributed teams.
What Employers Should Do Now
The report calls for decisive action. For high-growth companies, this is more than guidance – it’s a roadmap.
1. Prioritise Digital Skills – Especially for At-Risk Groups
Women, clerical teams, and administrative functions should be front and centre in reskilling strategies.
Training shouldn’t just focus on “how to use AI tools”, but also on:
- critical thinking
- digital literacy
- information management
- communication
- adapting workflows around automation
The goal? Elevate these roles, don’t erode them.
2. Redesign Roles, Don’t Replace Them
Job redesign is where forward-thinking companies will win.
This includes:
- shifting repetitive tasks to AI
- re-centring humans on judgment, creativity and problem-solving
- updating job descriptions to reflect hybrid human-machine workflows
This is where performance, productivity, and job satisfaction can all increase – if done intentionally.
3. Align AI Planning With Labour and Education Strategies
The report argues that AI shouldn’t sit in a silo.
Instead, it must be meshed with:
- wider workforce planning
- internal learning programmes
- talent pipelines
- role progression frameworks
AI adoption without strategic integration leads to fragmentation. With alignment, it becomes a growth lever.
4. Put Workers in the Room
Perhaps the most important recommendation: inclusive dialogue.
Workers should have a say in:
- how AI is deployed
- what tasks change
- which tools are adopted
- how workloads and expectations are adjusted
Without this, companies risk creating new inequalities, eroding trust, and undermining adoption.
The Bottom Line: AI Isn’t Replacing Jobs – It’s Rewriting Them
The companies that thrive in this new era will be those who see AI not as a cost-cutting exercise, but as a catalyst for human-led capability building.
This report makes one thing clear: AI job transformation isn’t a future trend – it’s a live reality, and employers who plan for it thoughtfully will be the ones who protect job quality and unlock new capability at scale.
This moment requires:
- thoughtful design
- inclusive planning
- investment in skills
- engagement with the people behind the roles
At The Small Consultancy, we’re already working with leaders, founders and scaling organisations to navigate this shift – from job redesign and people strategy to learning pathways and AI-ready talent frameworks.
AI won’t replace your teams. But companies who fail to prepare for transformation just might lose them.
If you’d like support building an AI-ready workforce strategy, we’d love to chat.