Following Donald J. Trump’s victory on November 6, his administration bolsters a transformative agenda, including tax cuts, immigration reform, and economic policies to combat inflation. Central to his platform is a renewed focus on American energy independence, signalling significant shifts in the energy transition both domestically and globally. Here are six key ways Trump’s presidency could influence the future of energy:

1. A Boost for US Oil and Gas

President Trump has reiterated his commitment to expanding the domestic oil and gas sector, promoting deregulation, and enhancing energy exports (S&P Global, 2024). These policies are likely to accelerate fossil fuel production, reinforcing the U.S. as a major global energy player. However, this focus may come at the expense of environmental regulations critical to combating climate change and the energy transition .

Although some speculated a complete rollback of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), insiders indicate Trump plans to revise rather than repeal it. Strategic cuts to renewable energy subsidies and manufacturing incentives could shift the balance between fossil fuels and renewables while maintaining some aspects of the legislation for economic and political reasons.

Trump’s win could see the U.S. withdraw once again from the Paris Agreement, disrupting international efforts to address climate change. As 2024 is expected to be the hottest year on record, such a move would have profound implications for global climate diplomacy and the energy transition (WMO, 2024).

Trump’s well-known preference for tariffs as an economic tool could impact renewable energy supply chains. Increased costs for solar panels, wind turbines, and EV components—often sourced internationally—may hinder the growth of renewable energy projects while favouring domestic fossil fuel production.

During Trump’s first term, $259 billion in private capital was committed to energy deals, primarily in fossil fuels, compared to $235 billion under Biden, with a stronger emphasis on renewables (Preqin, 2024). Trump’s return may steer private investment back towards traditional energy industries, slowing the pace of the renewable energy transition.

With plans to ease antitrust regulations, Trump’s administration could pave the way for mergers and acquisitions across the energy sector. This could lead to greater consolidation among oil and gas companies while attracting private equity investments in pipelines, refineries, and infrastructure projects.

Conclusion

President Trump’s second term promises to reshape the energy transition, prioritising economic growth and energy independence. While these policies could bolster the U.S. fossil fuel industry, they may challenge the progress made in renewable energy and global climate commitments.

Across the Atlantic, European leaders have reiterated their commitment to aggressive climate pledges, underscoring the EU’s Green Deal as a counterbalance to America’s pivot. However, Trump’s stance could create headwinds for international collaboration, potentially slowing global efforts to combat climate change. The divergence in approaches may prompt European companies to redouble efforts in sustainability and innovation, positioning themselves as leaders in green technology despite the geopolitical challenges.

As businesses worldwide brace for these shifts, organisations must remain agile, ready to adapt their strategies for recruitment, branding, and talent retention in this evolving landscape. At The Small Consultancy, we specialise in helping companies navigate change—whether through workforce planning, strategic recruitment, or employer branding—so they can thrive in uncertain times.

For businesses committed to sustainability, we offer tailored support to ensure your values resonate with top talent and stakeholders. Whether you’re advancing green initiatives or weathering the changing energy landscape, we’re here to help. Get in touch to learn how we can support your success in this new era.